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Trade Balance, Q1 Earnings & the Strait of Hormuz Factor In
JOLTS Come Out After the Open, Along with New Home Sales and AMD's Q1
Tuesday, May 5th, 2026
This morning, pre-market futures are higher following a selloff of mixed proportions on Monday. (For instance, the blue-chip Dow fell -557 points, -1.13%, on renewed uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz, while the tech/AI-centric Nasdaq dipped just -46 points, -0.19%. Today, off early morning highs, the Dow is +200 points, the Nasdaq +206 points and the S&P 500 +32. The small-cap Russell 2000 leads major indexes so far, +23 points, +0.82%.
Tensions are escalating in the Strait once again overnight, with shots being traded by Iran and the U.S. Iran has also attacked an oil refinery in the UAE, further hampering global energy supplies. Analysts are concerned the war could heat up from here; unless talks resume in the near term, with both sides serious about achieving peace, they just might be correct. That said, pre-markets are trading as if cooler heads will prevail.
U.S. Trade Balance Stays In-Range
This morning, we saw the deepest deficit of 2026 in the U.S. Trade Balance for March: -$60.3 billion was lower than the slightly downwardly revised -$57.8 billion the previous month. That said, the deficit remains in range with the near-term high January’s -$54.7 billion and December’s low -$72.9 billion.
Only mild adjustments have been made in this data. Keep in mind: these are still March numbers, before the “rubber hit the road” from the prolonged Iran war. Imports grew +2.3% for the month and Exports +2.0%. We’ve been range-bound on the trade deficit for a year now; will events in the Middle East have shifted our trajectory?
Q1 Earnings at a Glance: PFE, ADM, MPC & More
Big Pharma staple Pfizer (PFE - Free Report) outpaced estimates on both top and bottom lines this morning, with earnings of +$0.75 per share beating expectations by 4 cents, on $14.45 billion in revenues, which were +4.56% above the Zacks consensus. Cancer drugs Padcev and Lorbrena both saw operational growth over +30%. Shares are up mildly on the news, +5.6% year to date. For more on PFE’s earnings, click here.
Food commodity supplier Archer Daniels-Midland (ADM - Free Report) also outperformed expectations on its Q1 bottom line, with earnings of +$0.71 per share easily surpassing the $0.66 anticipated. Revenues of $20.49 billion, however, came in -2.93% lower than consensus. Shares are also up slightly in today’s pre-market, but following +32.7% growth year over year. For more on ADM’s earnings, click here.
Oil refiner Marathon Petroleum (MPC - Free Report) posted perhaps the biggest positive surprise of the morning, with earnings of +$1.65 per share +129% higher than the $0.72 in the Zacks consensus. Revenues were also solidly higher than projections, by +13.88% to $34.57 billion in the quarter. Same deal in the pre-market: up slightly, but +55.3% year to date. For more on MPC’s earnings, click here.
Elsewhere, PayPal (PYPL - Free Report) outperformed estimates on its bottom line this morning — $1.34 per share versus $1.27 estimated, for a +5.51% beat — and Shopify (SHOP - Free Report) posted earnings of $0.36 per share, 4 cents higher than the Zacks consensus. Yet PayPal shares are selling off -9.6% on the news and Shopify is -7.8% at this hour.
What to Expect from the Stock Market Today
The first of the “Jobs Week” data hits after today’s open, when the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), for March, hits the tape. Expectations are for job openings to dip a tad to 6.8 million from 6.9 million the prior month. Again, we’ve seen a bit of volatility over the past few months, so we’ll see if this begins to calm down.
New Home Sales are expected to have grown in March (working off delated data — February numbers are expected this morning, as well) to +660K. The +587K reported in January was the lowest monthly tally since July of 2022, when mortgage rates were jumping on 40-year-high inflation.
After the close today, Zacks Rank #2 (Buy)-rated semiconductor giant Advance Micro Devices (AMD - Free Report) reports Q1 earnings. Expectations are for +35.42% earnings growth on +32.33% for revenues — clearly the latest winner in the AI-demand sweepstakes. The company last posted an earnings miss back in 2019.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
Pre-Markets Bounce Back from Monday's Selloff
Key Takeaways
Tuesday, May 5th, 2026
This morning, pre-market futures are higher following a selloff of mixed proportions on Monday. (For instance, the blue-chip Dow fell -557 points, -1.13%, on renewed uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz, while the tech/AI-centric Nasdaq dipped just -46 points, -0.19%. Today, off early morning highs, the Dow is +200 points, the Nasdaq +206 points and the S&P 500 +32. The small-cap Russell 2000 leads major indexes so far, +23 points, +0.82%.
Tensions are escalating in the Strait once again overnight, with shots being traded by Iran and the U.S. Iran has also attacked an oil refinery in the UAE, further hampering global energy supplies. Analysts are concerned the war could heat up from here; unless talks resume in the near term, with both sides serious about achieving peace, they just might be correct. That said, pre-markets are trading as if cooler heads will prevail.
U.S. Trade Balance Stays In-Range
This morning, we saw the deepest deficit of 2026 in the U.S. Trade Balance for March: -$60.3 billion was lower than the slightly downwardly revised -$57.8 billion the previous month. That said, the deficit remains in range with the near-term high January’s -$54.7 billion and December’s low -$72.9 billion.
Only mild adjustments have been made in this data. Keep in mind: these are still March numbers, before the “rubber hit the road” from the prolonged Iran war. Imports grew +2.3% for the month and Exports +2.0%. We’ve been range-bound on the trade deficit for a year now; will events in the Middle East have shifted our trajectory?
Q1 Earnings at a Glance: PFE, ADM, MPC & More
Big Pharma staple Pfizer (PFE - Free Report) outpaced estimates on both top and bottom lines this morning, with earnings of +$0.75 per share beating expectations by 4 cents, on $14.45 billion in revenues, which were +4.56% above the Zacks consensus. Cancer drugs Padcev and Lorbrena both saw operational growth over +30%. Shares are up mildly on the news, +5.6% year to date. For more on PFE’s earnings, click here.
Food commodity supplier Archer Daniels-Midland (ADM - Free Report) also outperformed expectations on its Q1 bottom line, with earnings of +$0.71 per share easily surpassing the $0.66 anticipated. Revenues of $20.49 billion, however, came in -2.93% lower than consensus. Shares are also up slightly in today’s pre-market, but following +32.7% growth year over year. For more on ADM’s earnings, click here.
Oil refiner Marathon Petroleum (MPC - Free Report) posted perhaps the biggest positive surprise of the morning, with earnings of +$1.65 per share +129% higher than the $0.72 in the Zacks consensus. Revenues were also solidly higher than projections, by +13.88% to $34.57 billion in the quarter. Same deal in the pre-market: up slightly, but +55.3% year to date. For more on MPC’s earnings, click here.
Elsewhere, PayPal (PYPL - Free Report) outperformed estimates on its bottom line this morning — $1.34 per share versus $1.27 estimated, for a +5.51% beat — and Shopify (SHOP - Free Report) posted earnings of $0.36 per share, 4 cents higher than the Zacks consensus. Yet PayPal shares are selling off -9.6% on the news and Shopify is -7.8% at this hour.
What to Expect from the Stock Market Today
The first of the “Jobs Week” data hits after today’s open, when the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), for March, hits the tape. Expectations are for job openings to dip a tad to 6.8 million from 6.9 million the prior month. Again, we’ve seen a bit of volatility over the past few months, so we’ll see if this begins to calm down.
New Home Sales are expected to have grown in March (working off delated data — February numbers are expected this morning, as well) to +660K. The +587K reported in January was the lowest monthly tally since July of 2022, when mortgage rates were jumping on 40-year-high inflation.
After the close today, Zacks Rank #2 (Buy)-rated semiconductor giant Advance Micro Devices (AMD - Free Report) reports Q1 earnings. Expectations are for +35.42% earnings growth on +32.33% for revenues — clearly the latest winner in the AI-demand sweepstakes. The company last posted an earnings miss back in 2019.
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